I think that newer technologies don’t simply replace older ones in many cases; they emerge because mature technologies create the conditions for them, and then both coexist for a time. As the incumbent stabilizes—standards, infrastructure, and costs—new modes start as complements serving specific niches while switching costs keep most users put.
Adoption flips when the newcomer becomes competitive on total cost, convenience, or performance—often offering a step-change on at least one key dimension (for transportation, more extended range in less time or a markedly lower cost per mile). The new technology takes off at that tipping point and captures most of the growth. Older technology rarely disappears; it persists where it’s structurally advantageous or the new option isn’t available or cost‑effective, becoming part of a layered system rather than being entirely replaced.
Yes. This is something that I would not have expected. However, I wonder if the dated nature of my source might make a difference. China has built an incredible amount of infrastructure since this was published, and I suspect China defies these trends to some extent.
This is a fascinating analysis of how transportation technology has evolved through distinct pulses. The concept of the constant travel time budget is particularly insightful - it suggests that our behavior is more constrained by time than we might think. What strikes me most is how each technological wave didn't just increase speed, but enabled entirely new patterns of economic organzation and settlement. The transition from canals to railways, for instance, fundamentally reshaped where cities could form and how industries could organize their supply chains.
One additional element over speed is frequency. I'm able to jet back and forth across the country over a dozen times this year, sometimes for only a single day of work at the destination and am back home quickly.
But I am now on a trip requiring a 2.2 hour flight but still it involved 6 hours door to door: drive to the airport, wait out security checks, plane unloading and loading, fly, collect baggage, find and take Uber to hotel, etc.
Somehow we need to become more rational about security and about loading and unloading the plane and baggage. Pre review people for low risk? Find way to arrive at the gate where they take your luggage, and then collect it upon deplaning, etc. ?? No long trips to and from gate? etc.
But to drive this 850 miles distance would have been 12.5 hours or more.
In this case the airfare costs less than a night at the hotel!! Another area that is out of whack with "fair dealing" ?? [minor traveler's rant! :-) ]
I have concerns about such "autonomous" vehicles. If 3 or 4 humans arrive at an intersection at the same time, they eventually come to a pattern of "you go first", but some people are more in a hurry, some more mellow, etc. There is variation in our human responses and natures. If 4 AI driven vehicles come together with the same algorithmic "nature", I am not sure how they decide the order of advance. Yes, the law says the person on the right goes first, but if there are 4 "rights" at the same time???
I also suspect the programming would be to drive more slowly than we humans might. That might make net transit time shorter, or not?? Perhaps they talk to the traffic lights based on approaching traffic volume and the heavier path is given priority by the lights?
Plane loading schemes seem to be based more on extracting the most money from the well-off business travelers. But if you don't load from the rear to the front, then people are in each other's way in the aisle, so things take longer. Traveling with young children introduces extra time and care, as well. Being rigorous about the carry-on bag size and quantity might help. My last trip I paid extra for curb side baggage collection, then found out I could have taken my bag to the gate and checked it there for free.
I so wanted to do this....I ran out of time. I will probably come back and add it later. If I add the chart, is this something that could go on Humanprogress.org?
An excellent post!
I think that newer technologies don’t simply replace older ones in many cases; they emerge because mature technologies create the conditions for them, and then both coexist for a time. As the incumbent stabilizes—standards, infrastructure, and costs—new modes start as complements serving specific niches while switching costs keep most users put.
Adoption flips when the newcomer becomes competitive on total cost, convenience, or performance—often offering a step-change on at least one key dimension (for transportation, more extended range in less time or a markedly lower cost per mile). The new technology takes off at that tipping point and captures most of the growth. Older technology rarely disappears; it persists where it’s structurally advantageous or the new option isn’t available or cost‑effective, becoming part of a layered system rather than being entirely replaced.
Yes. This is something that I would not have expected. However, I wonder if the dated nature of my source might make a difference. China has built an incredible amount of infrastructure since this was published, and I suspect China defies these trends to some extent.
This is a fascinating analysis of how transportation technology has evolved through distinct pulses. The concept of the constant travel time budget is particularly insightful - it suggests that our behavior is more constrained by time than we might think. What strikes me most is how each technological wave didn't just increase speed, but enabled entirely new patterns of economic organzation and settlement. The transition from canals to railways, for instance, fundamentally reshaped where cities could form and how industries could organize their supply chains.
Thank you. I subscribed to Robots and Chips!
One additional element over speed is frequency. I'm able to jet back and forth across the country over a dozen times this year, sometimes for only a single day of work at the destination and am back home quickly.
That's a good point, one that I hadn't considered. Flying enables you to forgo the weather largely.
All well and good commentary.
But I am now on a trip requiring a 2.2 hour flight but still it involved 6 hours door to door: drive to the airport, wait out security checks, plane unloading and loading, fly, collect baggage, find and take Uber to hotel, etc.
Somehow we need to become more rational about security and about loading and unloading the plane and baggage. Pre review people for low risk? Find way to arrive at the gate where they take your luggage, and then collect it upon deplaning, etc. ?? No long trips to and from gate? etc.
But to drive this 850 miles distance would have been 12.5 hours or more.
In this case the airfare costs less than a night at the hotel!! Another area that is out of whack with "fair dealing" ?? [minor traveler's rant! :-) ]
Yes, I wonder is autonomous vehicles could plug this gap, making it easier and seamless to go to and from airports, enhancing the speed of air travel.
I have concerns about such "autonomous" vehicles. If 3 or 4 humans arrive at an intersection at the same time, they eventually come to a pattern of "you go first", but some people are more in a hurry, some more mellow, etc. There is variation in our human responses and natures. If 4 AI driven vehicles come together with the same algorithmic "nature", I am not sure how they decide the order of advance. Yes, the law says the person on the right goes first, but if there are 4 "rights" at the same time???
I also suspect the programming would be to drive more slowly than we humans might. That might make net transit time shorter, or not?? Perhaps they talk to the traffic lights based on approaching traffic volume and the heavier path is given priority by the lights?
Plane loading schemes seem to be based more on extracting the most money from the well-off business travelers. But if you don't load from the rear to the front, then people are in each other's way in the aisle, so things take longer. Traveling with young children introduces extra time and care, as well. Being rigorous about the carry-on bag size and quantity might help. My last trip I paid extra for curb side baggage collection, then found out I could have taken my bag to the gate and checked it there for free.
Rant #2 - thanks.
Excellent! How about a chart or two summarizing your findings?
I so wanted to do this....I ran out of time. I will probably come back and add it later. If I add the chart, is this something that could go on Humanprogress.org?